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Fire in the (Jackson) Hole

20 August 2025 The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting will be the last one for Jay Powell as Fed Chair. The big picture question is whether...

Aug 20, 20253 min read

07 August 2025 In late June we argued that “although the unemployment rate remains low, partial indicators of the labour market (job...

Aug 7, 20253 min read

31 July 2025 The much-anticipated quarterly results from Microsoft and Meta were considerably stronger than expected (+9% and +7% on the...

Jul 31, 20253 min read

Jul 30, 20250 min read

30 June 2025 One of our mentors used to ask, what is your quarrel with price? From our vantage point there is a divergence between price,...

Jun 29, 20253 min read

Jun 27, 20250 min read

25 June 2025 One of our mentors used to say, it’s important to think symmetrically about risk. Iran attacked a US military base in Qatar...

Jun 25, 20253 min read

Jun 23, 20250 min read

20 June 2025 The challenge with forecasting is that human beings cannot see the future. That includes the Federal Reserve. As expected,...

Jun 19, 20252 min read

17 June 2025 Ironically, we had been doing work on oil and gas prior to the Isreal-Iran episode last Friday. Recent underperformance of...

Jun 17, 20253 min read

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