Sep 133 minBlind Leading the BlindIn August we noted that a key characteristic of 2023 has been swings in the prevailing bias on major macro trends that have caught...
Aug 313 minThe Twisted Logic of Bad Equals Good One of the key characteristics of 2023 has been swings in the prevailing bias on major macro trends that have caught consensus...
Aug 234 minA Rolling Loan Gathers No LossLong end yields have recently broken to new cycle highs. From our perch, as we noted earlier this month, this likely reflects a few key...
Aug 183 minThe Great Fall of ChinaThe Economist Cover on August 29th, 2015, was titled the “Great Fall of China.” While that was not quite the trough in that episode or...
Aug 112 minIf the First Wave Doesn't Get You the Second Wave WillEarlier this week we suggested that the odds of a soft landing remain low. There have been only 2 out of 12 episodes since 1957. The most...
Aug 73 minEternal Hope or Revulsion?From our perch, a behavioural error analysts and investors often make is to extrapolate cyclical dynamics as structural. The macro cycle...
Aug 42 minThe Bond Market Woke up and Chose Violence“No Mr Bond… I expect you to die.” As an astute investor noted today, yield curves re-steepen (un-invert) as long bonds worry about...
Aug 33 minDownfall RisingA couple of weeks away from the screens is often a good time for perspective and reflection. Earlier this year the prevailing bias among...
Jun 213 minBuzz Lightyear is BackWe once described Japan as the Buzz Lightyear market “to infinity and beyond”. Clearly that was an exaggeration to emphasize the impact...
Jun 153 minThe Hawk Baulk & AsiaAs widely expected, the FOMC left the funds rate unchanged at 5.25% at the June meeting. However, consensus beliefs on the terminal rate...