Oct 162 min readThe Absence of Risk CompensationA key question our mentor used to ask is what is your quarrel with price? The S&P500 (the global risk proxy) is trading near the...
Oct 83 min readToo Fast, Too FuriousThe way price responded to China’s NDRC Press Conference today raised two key observations about recent developments. First, the rally...
Sep 262 min readThe Panic PhaseThere is an adage on Wall Street that the stock market stops panicking when central banks start to panic . Earlier this year we noted...
Sep 242 min readHow Deep Is Your Dove?Two elements in the current episode have been huge macro impediments for Emerging Market equities. First, the great bear market in China...
Sep 192 min readNo BullAs we warned earlier this week, never underestimate the Fed’s ability to out-dove the market. The FOMC delivered a 50-basis point cut to...
Sep 162 min readNever Underestimate the Fed's Ability to Out-Dove the MarketOne of our favourite expressions in the last cycle was, never underestimate the Fed’s ability to out-dove the market . The implication is...
Sep 112 min readThe Smiling Assassin (USD)The Dollar Smile hypothesis was created over 20 years ago by Stephen Jen at Morgan Stanley. Simply put, when the US economy significantly...
Sep 42 min readThe Growth ScareLast week we suggested that US markets were priced for the optimal combination of disinflation, aggressive Fed easing, growth near trend,...