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22 hours ago0 min read
A Bigger Bubble?
03 November 2025 A key feature of our macro framework is that business cycles tend to be non-linear. This is antithetical to the efficient market hypothesis. The non-linearity exists because of a pro-cyclical or reflexive feedback loop. When a positive feedback loop develops between an underlying trend and a misconception relating to that trend, it sets a boom-bust process in motion. The boom-bust process is then amplified by credit and leverage. From our perch, most precondi
Nov 33 min read
Sep 260 min read
Always Think Symmetrically About Risk
25 September 2025 One of my mentors used to say always think symmetrically about risk . Put another way, it is important to consider...
Sep 253 min read
Sep 240 min read
Sep 20 min read
Heroic Expectations
29 August 2025 Earlier this month following the Microsoft and Meta results we discussed AI and the spiraling cost model. The key...
Aug 293 min read
Fire in the (Jackson) Hole
20 August 2025 The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting will be the last one for Jay Powell as Fed Chair. The big picture question is whether...
Aug 203 min read
Boom Or Doom?
07 August 2025 In late June we argued that “although the unemployment rate remains low, partial indicators of the labour market (job...
Aug 73 min read
AI & the Spiraling Cost Model
31 July 2025 The much-anticipated quarterly results from Microsoft and Meta were considerably stronger than expected (+9% and +7% on the...
Jul 313 min read
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