Media Center

21 November 2025 There has been a correction in risk assets over the past few weeks. While it has been orderly at the index level there has been a deeper correction in some of the popular exposures (data centre names) and in some of the listed private asset companies providing the finance. Investors were, quite rightly, focussed on NVDIA which reported after the market close on Wednesday in the United States. The bullish case, as we noted last week, is that we are only halfwa

17 November 2025 We put a low weight on our ability to forecast. That is always challenging because human beings cannot see the future. Nonetheless, it is important to frame plausible realities to get a sense of the risk-reward. From our perch, the 2026 outlook is particularly inscrutable because there is a highly conflicting outlook on growth and inflation. Stated differently, we can make a convincing case for material upside and downside risks to the cyclical outlook. Each

03 November 2025 A key feature of our macro framework is that business cycles tend to be non-linear. This is antithetical to the efficient market hypothesis. The non-linearity exists because of a pro-cyclical or reflexive feedback loop. When a positive feedback loop develops between an underlying trend and a misconception relating to that trend, it sets a boom-bust process in motion. The boom-bust process is then amplified by credit and leverage. From our perch, most precondi

25 September 2025 One of my mentors used to say always think symmetrically about risk . Put another way, it is important to consider...

29 August 2025 Earlier this month following the Microsoft and Meta results we discussed AI and the spiraling cost model. The key...

20 August 2025 The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting will be the last one for Jay Powell as Fed Chair. The big picture question is whether...