Too Fast, Too Furious
The way price responded to China’s NDRC Press Conference today raised two key observations about recent developments. First, the rally...
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Sep 192 min read
No Bull
As we warned earlier this week, never underestimate the Fed’s ability to out-dove the market. The FOMC delivered a 50-basis point cut to...
Sep 42 min read
The Growth Scare
Last week we suggested that US markets were priced for the optimal combination of disinflation, aggressive Fed easing, growth near trend,...
Aug 273 min read
Don't Believe in Fairytales
The past two months over the northern hemisphere summer have been extraordinary for markets. The euphoria of the AI boom contributed to...
Aug 63 min read
Japan & the Gamma Hammer
It is an understatement to say that the price action over the past week has been impulsive, rapid, and emotional (chart 1). There is an...
Jul 313 min read
The Great China Constraint
To outperform the crowd, you must dare to be different. Put another way, the best investments are typically made from a position of deep...
Jun 272 min read
The Mighty Dollar
It is important to remember that currencies are always a relative price. Interest rates, growth, inflation, and external positions are...
May 73 min read
When Thunder & Lightning Strike: The Gamma Hammer
Human beings are not particularly good at non-linear thinking - an observation we have made in the past. From our perch, a key reason why...
Feb 74 min read
Enter the Dragon & the Third Element
Enter the Dragon & the Third Element This year we enter the Zodiac year of the Dragon. Let’s hope it is a lot more auspicious than the...
Dec 6, 20233 min read
Equities Say Yes, Bonds are Screaming No!
The decline in Treasury yields (rise in bond prices) since late October has been impulsive, rapid, and emotional. Suddenly all the slack...
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