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No Bull

As we warned earlier this week, never underestimate the Fed’s ability to out-dove the market. The FOMC delivered a 50-basis point cut to...

The Growth Scare

Last week we suggested that US markets were priced for the optimal combination of disinflation, aggressive Fed easing, growth near trend,...

Don't Believe in Fairytales

The past two months over the northern hemisphere summer have been extraordinary for markets. The euphoria of the AI boom contributed to...

Japan & the Gamma Hammer

It is an understatement to say that the price action over the past week has been impulsive, rapid, and emotional (chart 1). There is an...

The Great China Constraint

To outperform the crowd, you must dare to be different. Put another way, the best investments are typically made from a position of deep...

The Mighty Dollar

It is important to remember that currencies are always a relative price. Interest rates, growth, inflation, and external positions are...

When Thunder & Lightning Strike: The Gamma Hammer

Human beings are not particularly good at non-linear thinking - an observation we have made in the past. From our perch, a key reason why...

Enter the Dragon & the Third Element

Enter the Dragon & the Third Element This year we enter the Zodiac year of the Dragon. Let’s hope it is a lot more auspicious than the...

Equities Say Yes, Bonds are Screaming No!

The decline in Treasury yields (rise in bond prices) since late October has been impulsive, rapid, and emotional. Suddenly all the slack...

Pet Rock & the All-Time-High

The barbarous relic (gold) made a new all time high this morning in Asian trade on Monday. From our perch, the shift in consensus beliefs...

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