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The Reverse Feedback Loop
04 March 2025 Differences of opinion between market participants are often (not always) a matter of time horizon. From our perch,...
Mar 33 min read


Too Fast, Too Furious
The way price responded to China’s NDRC Press Conference today raised two key observations about recent developments. First, the rally...
Oct 8, 20243 min read


No Bull
As we warned earlier this week, never underestimate the Fed’s ability to out-dove the market. The FOMC delivered a 50-basis point cut to...
Sep 19, 20242 min read


The Growth Scare
Last week we suggested that US markets were priced for the optimal combination of disinflation, aggressive Fed easing, growth near trend,...
Sep 4, 20242 min read


Don't Believe in Fairytales
The past two months over the northern hemisphere summer have been extraordinary for markets. The euphoria of the AI boom contributed to...
Aug 27, 20243 min read


Japan & the Gamma Hammer
It is an understatement to say that the price action over the past week has been impulsive, rapid, and emotional (chart 1). There is an...
Aug 6, 20243 min read


The Great China Constraint
To outperform the crowd, you must dare to be different. Put another way, the best investments are typically made from a position of deep...
Jul 31, 20243 min read


The Mighty Dollar
It is important to remember that currencies are always a relative price. Interest rates, growth, inflation, and external positions are...
Jun 27, 20242 min read


When Thunder & Lightning Strike: The Gamma Hammer
Human beings are not particularly good at non-linear thinking - an observation we have made in the past. From our perch, a key reason why...
May 7, 20243 min read


Enter the Dragon & the Third Element
Enter the Dragon & the Third Element This year we enter the Zodiac year of the Dragon. Let’s hope it is a lot more auspicious than the...
Feb 7, 20244 min read
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