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03 November 2025 A key feature of our macro framework is that business cycles tend to be non-linear. This is antithetical to the efficient market hypothesis. The non-linearity exists because of a pro-cyclical or reflexive feedback loop. When a positive feedback loop develops between an underlying trend and a misconception relating to that trend, it sets a boom-bust process in motion. The boom-bust process is then amplified by credit and leverage. From our perch, most precondi

13 October 2025 If you want to know where the future risk is; follow the leverage.  As we often note, there is an intimate link between...

25 September 2025 One of my mentors used to say always think symmetrically about risk . Put another way, it is important to consider...

18 September 2025 The paradox of the “Sharpe-Ratio” or value at risk approach to managing exposure is that long periods of stability...

17 September 2025 A key feature of our macro framework is that business cycles tend to be non-linear. The non-linearity exists because of...

12 September 2025 The current speculative episode in Artificial Intelligence (AI) has many parallels with the first dot.com bubble in...

09 September 2025 As our friend Dave Dredge has argued for some time, the “good outcome”  for bond investors would be a recession (more...