Media Center

06 January 2025 In our big picture outlook for 2026 we argued that there were three upside risks to growth. First, we are only halfway through the AI capex super cycle and associated productivity boom. Second, financial conditions were very accommodative. Third, the US fiscal impulse remained supportive, and the US administration was motivated to “run the economy hot” into the mid-terms. In Asia, we argued that the supply-chain leveraged to the AI boom remained inexpensive or

11 December 2025 As widely anticipated, the US Federal Reserve cut the funds rate by 25bp to 3.75% (upper band) at the December FOMC. That takes the policy rate closer to the upper end of neutral according to Chair Powell. A signal that “risk management” cuts are done. The Fed Chairman did not rule out more cuts if that was warranted by the data. However, he explicitly ruled out symmetrical (two-sided) risks to the policy path for now.   From our perch, the outlook for the la

10 December 2025 The prevailing bias is that the US Federal Reserve will cut the funds rate at the December FOMC on Wednesday. However, many investors anticipate “hawkish language.” From our vantage point, the description of a “hawkish cut” is self-contradictory. If the Fed cuts rates that will ease the cost of borrowing at the front end of the yield curve.  To be fair, the US is a “long rate” economy – most borrowing is done at the long end of the yield curve. Hence some inv

21 November 2025 There has been a correction in risk assets over the past few weeks. While it has been orderly at the index level there has been a deeper correction in some of the popular exposures (data centre names) and in some of the listed private asset companies providing the finance. Investors were, quite rightly, focussed on NVDIA which reported after the market close on Wednesday in the United States. The bullish case, as we noted last week, is that we are only halfwa

17 November 2025 We put a low weight on our ability to forecast. That is always challenging because human beings cannot see the future. Nonetheless, it is important to frame plausible realities to get a sense of the risk-reward. From our perch, the 2026 outlook is particularly inscrutable because there is a highly conflicting outlook on growth and inflation. Stated differently, we can make a convincing case for material upside and downside risks to the cyclical outlook. Each

03 November 2025 A key feature of our macro framework is that business cycles tend to be non-linear. This is antithetical to the efficient market hypothesis. The non-linearity exists because of a pro-cyclical or reflexive feedback loop. When a positive feedback loop develops between an underlying trend and a misconception relating to that trend, it sets a boom-bust process in motion. The boom-bust process is then amplified by credit and leverage. From our perch, most precondi

13 October 2025 If you want to know where the future risk is; follow the leverage.  As we often note, there is an intimate link between...