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17 November 2025 We put a low weight on our ability to forecast. That is always challenging because human beings cannot see the future. Nonetheless, it is important to frame plausible realities to get a sense of the risk-reward. From our perch, the 2026 outlook is particularly inscrutable because there is a highly conflicting outlook on growth and inflation. Stated differently, we can make a convincing case for material upside and downside risks to the cyclical outlook. Each

03 November 2025 A key feature of our macro framework is that business cycles tend to be non-linear. This is antithetical to the efficient market hypothesis. The non-linearity exists because of a pro-cyclical or reflexive feedback loop. When a positive feedback loop develops between an underlying trend and a misconception relating to that trend, it sets a boom-bust process in motion. The boom-bust process is then amplified by credit and leverage. From our perch, most precondi

13 October 2025 If you want to know where the future risk is; follow the leverage.  As we often note, there is an intimate link between...

25 September 2025 One of my mentors used to say always think symmetrically about risk . Put another way, it is important to consider...

18 September 2025 The paradox of the “Sharpe-Ratio” or value at risk approach to managing exposure is that long periods of stability...

17 September 2025 A key feature of our macro framework is that business cycles tend to be non-linear. The non-linearity exists because of...

12 September 2025 The current speculative episode in Artificial Intelligence (AI) has many parallels with the first dot.com bubble in...