Dec 16, 20213 minThe End of Super-Abundant Liquidity The prevailing bias among market participants over the past few months has been that an early start to rate hikes would imply a need for...
Nov 17, 20213 minThe Smiling Assassin (the Dollar Smile)One of the complexities of the foreign exchange market is that the US dollar – as the global reserve currency – can rally in phases of...
Oct 18, 20213 minChina's "Real" GDP Chinese Premier Li Keqiang once revealed (on Wiki Leaks) that China’s GDP was “man-made” and to track growth he preferred to observe...
Oct 4, 20213 minNow for the Payback? For more than a year, global risk assets have rallied thanks to an almost perfect combination of positive tailwinds. The emergence of...
Sep 20, 20213 minContagion Price has become impulsive today in Hong Kong and in other assets levered to activity in Chinese real estate such as the Australian...
Aug 27, 20213 minThe A-Team & Mr. T (taper)“I love it when a plan comes together” If Bloomberg reports are correct, it appears as though Jay Powell is likely to be re-appointed as...
Jul 29, 20213 minDelta Skelta to the Gamma Hammer In automotive terms, if the delta of the option is its speed, then gamma is the acceleration. Overnight, Bank of America made an...
May 18, 20213 minEnd of the Consolidation PhaseIn Mid-April we warned that a range of tactical indicators were flashing red (see “taking a pause for the cause”). As a result, we have...
Mar 26, 20213 minHow Much Can a Panda BearChina’s Shanghai Composite Index is down by a non-trivial 15% from the February peak (chart 1). The big picture question is whether the...
Dec 16, 20203 minCredit Is Inflationary When Taken OnA big picture observation that we have often made is that credit is inflationary when taken on and deflationary when paid back. Over the...