May 31, 20233 minA.I... All In like it's 1999The divergence in consensus beliefs between the current leaders and laggards in the stock market is extraordinarily large. As several...
May 30, 20231 minNick Ferres on Bloomberg's "IC Your Trade 3" "Yield curves have never been this inverted and not signalled a recession. Bank lending standards have never been this tight without...
May 30, 20233 minThe Antithesis of EuphoriaAs we noted last week (see “how much can a panda bear”), the unwind of enthusiasm for China’s re-opening has been warranted. China’s hard...
May 29, 20232 minStealth TighteningNot surprisingly, an agreement appears to have been reached to raise the debt ceiling. While negotiations were fraught, the debt ceiling...
May 26, 20233 minBetween Reality and MisconceptionAs a behavioural investor, the current episode has been fascinating and clearly challenging at the same time. The “everything bubble” as...
Apr 19, 20233 minHard Not Soft From our perch, the odds of a hard landing remain uncomfortably high. While risk assets have stabilised following the regional bank and...
Feb 27, 20233 minDisco InfernoA key fear of market participants and policy makers is a repeat of the 1970s (disco era) episode. While many pundits continue to argue...
Feb 22, 20232 minSmokey & the (Credit) BanditAs we often note, it is important to ask: what is your quarrel with price? While markets are not efficient, it is a heroic assumption to...
Feb 16, 20233 minThe Big FlipIt has been a few weeks since we have published as your humble student of the markets has been on the road meeting investors. From our...