Blind Leading the Blind
In August we noted that a key characteristic of 2023 has been swings in the prevailing bias on major macro trends that have caught...
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- Aug 31, 2023
- 3 min
The Twisted Logic of Bad Equals Good
One of the key characteristics of 2023 has been swings in the prevailing bias on major macro trends that have caught consensus...
- Aug 23, 2023
- 4 min
A Rolling Loan Gathers No Loss
Long end yields have recently broken to new cycle highs. From our perch, as we noted earlier this month, this likely reflects a few key...
- Aug 18, 2023
- 3 min
The Great Fall of China
The Economist Cover on August 29th, 2015, was titled the “Great Fall of China.” While that was not quite the trough in that episode or...
- Aug 11, 2023
- 2 min
If the First Wave Doesn't Get You the Second Wave Will
Earlier this week we suggested that the odds of a soft landing remain low. There have been only 2 out of 12 episodes since 1957. The most...
- Aug 7, 2023
- 3 min
Eternal Hope or Revulsion?
From our perch, a behavioural error analysts and investors often make is to extrapolate cyclical dynamics as structural. The macro cycle...
- Aug 4, 2023
- 2 min
The Bond Market Woke up and Chose Violence
“No Mr Bond… I expect you to die.” As an astute investor noted today, yield curves re-steepen (un-invert) as long bonds worry about...
- Aug 3, 2023
- 3 min
Downfall Rising
A couple of weeks away from the screens is often a good time for perspective and reflection. Earlier this year the prevailing bias among...
- Jun 21, 2023
- 3 min
Buzz Lightyear is Back
We once described Japan as the Buzz Lightyear market “to infinity and beyond”. Clearly that was an exaggeration to emphasize the impact...
- Jun 15, 2023
- 3 min
The Hawk Baulk & Asia
As widely expected, the FOMC left the funds rate unchanged at 5.25% at the June meeting. However, consensus beliefs on the terminal rate...
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