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Crude Reality
17 June 2025 Ironically, we had been doing work on oil and gas prior to the Isreal-Iran episode last Friday. Recent underperformance of...
Jun 17, 20253 min read
The Marilyn Monroe Economy: Some Like it Hot
03 June 2025 Long phases of stability lead to episodes of instability as they encourage a build-up and unwind of leverage. Put another...
Jun 3, 20252 min read
May 24, 20250 min read
May 24, 20250 min read
The Great Stop Loss Risk
22 May 2025 A prescient question our friend Dave Dredge often asks Japanese policy makers is: “what if it works?” What if inflation...
May 22, 20253 min read
The Risk-Reward Remains Challenged
14 May 2025 The trade discussion over the weekend in Geneva between the United States and China appeared to yield “substantial progress.”...
May 14, 20254 min read
Walk the Hawk
07 May 2025 One of our favourite expressions in the post-2008 regime was, never underestimate the Fed’s ability to out-dove the market ....
May 7, 20253 min read
Second Order Consequences
05 May 2025 The price action in equities has been encouraging since “capitulation day.” Incrementally positive news flow on trade...
May 4, 20253 min read
Capitulation Day
30 April 2025 Earlier this month in the immediate aftermath of “liberation day” “liquidation day” we argued that US-China relations is...
Apr 30, 20253 min read
Apr 28, 20250 min read
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