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25 September 2025 One of my mentors used to say always think symmetrically about risk . Put another way, it is important to consider...

18 September 2025 The paradox of the “Sharpe-Ratio” or value at risk approach to managing exposure is that long periods of stability...

17 September 2025 A key feature of our macro framework is that business cycles tend to be non-linear. The non-linearity exists because of...

12 September 2025 The current speculative episode in Artificial Intelligence (AI) has many parallels with the first dot.com bubble in...

09 September 2025 As our friend Dave Dredge has argued for some time, the “good outcome”  for bond investors would be a recession (more...

04 September 2025 Following a consolidation phase over the past few months that technicians would call a bull-flag, spot gold has broken...

29 August 2025 Earlier this month following the Microsoft and Meta results we discussed AI and the spiraling cost model. The key...

26 August 2025 The Federal Reserve reaction function is often presented as clean and rules based. If the labour market weakens or...