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Nov 7, 20242 min read
Make Volatility Great Again
As regular readers and clients know, our sense leading into the US elections was that the internals of the stock market, US Treasury...
Oct 16, 20242 min read
The Absence of Risk Compensation
A key question our mentor used to ask is what is your quarrel with price? The S&P500 (the global risk proxy) is trading near the...
Oct 8, 20243 min read
Too Fast, Too Furious
The way price responded to China’s NDRC Press Conference today raised two key observations about recent developments. First, the rally...
Oct 2, 20240 min read
Oct 1, 20240 min read
Sep 26, 20242 min read
The Panic Phase
There is an adage on Wall Street that the stock market stops panicking when central banks start to panic . Earlier this year we noted...
Sep 24, 20242 min read
How Deep Is Your Dove?
Two elements in the current episode have been huge macro impediments for Emerging Market equities. First, the great bear market in China...
Sep 19, 20242 min read
No Bull
As we warned earlier this week, never underestimate the Fed’s ability to out-dove the market. The FOMC delivered a 50-basis point cut to...
Sep 16, 20242 min read
Never Underestimate the Fed's Ability to Out-Dove the Market
One of our favourite expressions in the last cycle was, never underestimate the Fed’s ability to out-dove the market . The implication is...
Sep 11, 20242 min read
The Smiling Assassin (USD)
The Dollar Smile hypothesis was created over 20 years ago by Stephen Jen at Morgan Stanley. Simply put, when the US economy significantly...
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