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Doctor, Doctor sell me the Spooz

Dr Copper, the industrial metal with an honorary PhD in Economics is down 18% from the January 2023 high and 29% from peak. For the macro...

We Recommend You Panic

Hugh Hendry once quipped “we recommend you panic.” From our perch, investors ought to be deeply uncomfortable again today. Markets are in...

Truth versus a Good Story

Never let the truth get in the way of a good story. Small companies, as measured by the Russell 2000 index are trading below 2020 trough...

Gradually, then suddenly

Human beings are not particularly good at non-linear thinking. While many participants would like to believe that economics and markets...

Weak When Narrow

A common phrase often expressed by the financial media is that “markets hate uncertainty.” Of course, markets are always uncertain...

Going Straight to Sell

This year has been particularly challenging for consensus positioning and beliefs – “it’s transitory to soft landing” now being hit by...

Addicted to Dove

As widely anticipated, the US FOMC left policy unchanged at 5.5% at the September meeting. However, the dot plot was marked up again by...

What if it works?

A key question our friend Dave Dredge at Convex Strategies often asks policy officials in Japan about extreme measures (ZIRP, QE, YCC...

Just Can't Get Enough

I Just can’t get enough I Just can’t get enough The markets slip and slide when we end the dove And I just can’t seem to get enough...

A Year of Contras

As we have noted recently 2023 has been the year of the contras where swings in major macro trends have caught consensus positioning and...

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