sebastienpautrot

23 February 2026 As we often note, if you want to know where the future risk is, follow the leverage . Put differently, the common element in all major financial episodes is excessive leverage. In November last year, we noted the echoes with the 2008 crisis as well as the differences. These are included at the bottom of the note. Overnight, Blue Owl Capital – with $307 billion in assets under management – just permanently halted investor redemptions at its retail credit fund OBDC II. The fund...

02 February 2026 Earlier this week we warned that the price action in gold and precious metals had become “news” leading to a self-reinforcing feedback loop. We have been gold bulls in this cycle and expressed this via a sub-portfolio of gold miners. However, we cut this position in December, not because the miners had become expensive (they still trade on around 7 times cash flow) but because the recent price action had become rapid, emotional, and non-linear. That was a warning that the...

26 January 2025 Markets are facing a pivotal moment. Optimism over the prospects for the United States in 2026 remain euphoric. As we noted last week, equity investor sentiment is near bullish extremes according to Bank of America’s survey and cash levels in mutual funds are near cycle lows (3.3%). However, near term growth momentum appears reliant on the fiscal impulse, wealth effects (asset prices) and business investment (AI). The pace of technology investment is already brisk and is...