sebastienpautrot

21 November 2025 There has been a correction in risk assets over the past few weeks. While it has been orderly at the index level there has been a deeper correction in some of the popular exposures (data centre names) and in some of the listed private asset companies providing the finance. Investors were, quite rightly, focussed on NVDIA which reported after the market close on Wednesday in the United States. The bullish case, as we noted last week, is that we are only halfway through the AI...

17 November 2025 We put a low weight on our ability to forecast. That is always challenging because human beings cannot see the future. Nonetheless, it is important to frame plausible realities to get a sense of the risk-reward. From our perch, the 2026 outlook is particularly inscrutable because there is a highly conflicting outlook on growth and inflation. Stated differently, we can make a convincing case for material upside and downside risks to the cyclical outlook. Each path could have...