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How Much Can a Panda Bear

Updated: Aug 17, 2023

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is down by a non-trivial 15% from the February peak (chart 1). The big picture question is whether the decline is corrective or the start of something much deeper? From a macro perspective, China was first into the COVID crisis and was also the first to recover. The recovery in China’s activity data was distinctly V-shaped. However, the market is relatively expensive in a regional context and regulatory changes for sectors like internet have been a negative surprise. US-China trade tensions have also escalated again in recent weeks.

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