January 12, 2025 A key fear we have had for the performance of risk assets has been that the correlated rise in US Treasury yields and...

07 January 2025 Since 2023, our sense is that there have been a few major swings in macro trends (and narratives) that have caught...

As regular readers and clients know, our sense leading into the US elections was that the internals of the stock market, US Treasury...

A key question our mentor used to ask is what is your quarrel with price?  The S&P500 (the global risk proxy) is trading near the...

The way price responded to China’s NDRC Press Conference today raised two key observations about recent developments. First, the rally...

There is an adage on Wall Street that the stock market stops panicking when central banks start to panic . Earlier this year we noted...

Two elements in the current episode have been huge macro impediments for Emerging Market equities. First, the great bear market in China...

As we warned earlier this week,  never underestimate the Fed’s ability to out-dove the market. The FOMC delivered a 50-basis point cut to...

One of our favourite expressions in the last cycle was, never underestimate the Fed’s ability to out-dove the market . The implication is...

The Dollar Smile hypothesis was created over 20 years ago by Stephen Jen at Morgan Stanley. Simply put, when the US economy significantly...

Last week we suggested that US markets were priced for the optimal combination of disinflation, aggressive Fed easing, growth near trend,...

The past two months over the northern hemisphere summer have been extraordinary for markets. The euphoria of the AI boom contributed to...

It is an understatement to say that the price action over the past week has been impulsive, rapid, and emotional (chart 1). There is an...

To outperform the crowd, you must dare to be different. Put another way, the best investments are typically made from a position of deep...

It is an understatement to say that the past few weeks have been eventful for geopolitics and macro. Our fear at the end of June was that...

It is important to remember that currencies are always a relative price. Interest rates, growth, inflation, and external positions are...

As widely expected, the FOMC left the policy rate unchanged at the June meeting. Much of the market focus in the communication was on the...

Over the past few months there has been a growing prevailing bias that equities would enter a “crash up” or “melt-up” phase if weak macro...

In our 17 years in Asia, we have rarely met an investor from India who was bearish on their own market. To be fair, India has delivered...

Each year we release a set of “non-predictions.” As regular readers and clients know, we do not have typical forecast based approach....

The rally in Dr Copper, the industrial metal with an honorary PhD in Economics, has been a surprising development for most investors

Earlier this year China entered the zodiac year of the Dragon. It has been an auspicious year so far for equities with MSCI China up...

As we noted in April, the prevailing bias has been skewed to the belief that we are in a “crash up” phase in risk assets. Over the past...

“Selling empty promises from every point of view…. Just call on Mr. Dream” Billy Idol & Billy Morrison, May 2024 For those who have not...

Chart of the month – Nvidia’s Euphoric Rise vs China’s Brutal Selloff Nvidia (LHS) 1st Jan 2023 to Present CSI 1000 (RHS) 1st Jan 2023 to...

There has been a growing perception that equities are now in a “melt up” or “crash up” phase. However, the big picture problem for...

We are back in Singapore after three weeks on the road meeting clients. As we noted last week, there had been a growing perception or...

Basic rule: always call their bluff - James Bond. Over the past five years pet rock (spot gold) has traded with a resistance level just abov