No Bull
As we warned earlier this week, never underestimate the Fed’s ability to out-dove the market. The FOMC delivered a 50-basis point cut to...
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VPAM Club - exclusive
- 4 days ago
Never Underestimate the Fed's Ability to Out-Dove the Market
One of our favourite expressions in the last cycle was, never underestimate the Fed’s ability to out-dove the market . The implication is...
- Sep 11
The Smiling Assassin (USD)
The Dollar Smile hypothesis was created over 20 years ago by Stephen Jen at Morgan Stanley. Simply put, when the US economy significantly...
- Sep 4
The Growth Scare
Last week we suggested that US markets were priced for the optimal combination of disinflation, aggressive Fed easing, growth near trend,...
- Aug 27
Don't Believe in Fairytales
The past two months over the northern hemisphere summer have been extraordinary for markets. The euphoria of the AI boom contributed to...
- Aug 6
Japan & the Gamma Hammer
It is an understatement to say that the price action over the past week has been impulsive, rapid, and emotional (chart 1). There is an...
- Jul 31
The Great China Constraint
To outperform the crowd, you must dare to be different. Put another way, the best investments are typically made from a position of deep...
- Jul 25
50 Cent
It is an understatement to say that the past few weeks have been eventful for geopolitics and macro. Our fear at the end of June was that...
- Jun 27
The Mighty Dollar
It is important to remember that currencies are always a relative price. Interest rates, growth, inflation, and external positions are...
- Jun 13
Still Addicted to Dove
As widely expected, the FOMC left the policy rate unchanged at the June meeting. Much of the market focus in the communication was on the...
- Jun 11
The Mythical Melt-Up
Over the past few months there has been a growing prevailing bias that equities would enter a “crash up” or “melt-up” phase if weak macro...
- Jun 5
Dragon or Peacock
In our 17 years in Asia, we have rarely met an investor from India who was bearish on their own market. To be fair, India has delivered...
- May 30
The Non Predictions for 2024: Mid Year Review
Each year we release a set of “non-predictions.” As regular readers and clients know, we do not have typical forecast based approach....
- May 27
Dr. Feelgood (Copper)
The rally in Dr Copper, the industrial metal with an honorary PhD in Economics, has been a surprising development for most investors
- May 21
China; A Pivotal Moment?
Earlier this year China entered the zodiac year of the Dragon. It has been an auspicious year so far for equities with MSCI China up...
- May 16
Still Dancing, Near The Exit
As we noted in April, the prevailing bias has been skewed to the belief that we are in a “crash up” phase in risk assets. Over the past...
- May 15
Mr. Dream
“Selling empty promises from every point of view…. Just call on Mr. Dream” Billy Idol & Billy Morrison, May 2024 For those who have not...
- Apr 3
VPAM Monthly Macro Outlook Feb 2024
Chart of the month – Nvidia’s Euphoric Rise vs China’s Brutal Selloff Nvidia (LHS) 1st Jan 2023 to Present CSI 1000 (RHS) 1st Jan 2023 to...
- Apr 3
The Ideas of March
There has been a growing perception that equities are now in a “melt up” or “crash up” phase. However, the big picture problem for...
- Apr 3
Dance Near the Exit
We are back in Singapore after three weeks on the road meeting clients. As we noted last week, there had been a growing perception or...
- Apr 3
Goldeneye
Basic rule: always call their bluff - James Bond.
Over the past five years pet rock (spot gold) has traded with a resistance level just abov
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