24 April 2025 From a behavioural perspective, a key feature of major market episodes is that investors tend to focus on a single story....

09 April 2025 A mentor of mine used to say in these moments, “what do you think you know that the market doesn’t already know?”   We know...

17 March 2025 Since World War II there have been 48 corrections of -10% on the S&P500 (the global risk proxy), 12/48 (25%) have turned...

07 March 2025 George Soros, influenced by his tutor, Karl Popper (1957) developed the concept of reflexivity. In contrast to general...

25 February 2025 Controversial opinion: the Fast and the Furious movie franchise improved considerably by the tenth sequel. Perhaps the...

17 February 2025 We find the renewed enthusiasm for Chinese equities rather ironic given the extreme pessimism in consensus beliefs this...

11 February 2025 One of the phrases that has always wound me up as an investor is when market participants argue that the outlook is...

February 2, 2025 The current speculative episode in Artificial Intelligence (AI) has many parallels with the first Dot.Com  bubble in...

January 23, 2025 January 29th will usher in the year of the snake. According to Chinese geomancy snakes hold complex and varied...

January 21, 2025 The prevailing bias among market participants ahead of and in the immediate aftermath of the November election was that...

January 12, 2025 A key fear we have had for the performance of risk assets has been that the correlated rise in US Treasury yields and...

07 January 2025 Since 2023, our sense is that there have been a few major swings in macro trends (and narratives) that have caught...

As regular readers and clients know, our sense leading into the US elections was that the internals of the stock market, US Treasury...

A key question our mentor used to ask is what is your quarrel with price?  The S&P500 (the global risk proxy) is trading near the...

The way price responded to China’s NDRC Press Conference today raised two key observations about recent developments. First, the rally...

There is an adage on Wall Street that the stock market stops panicking when central banks start to panic . Earlier this year we noted...

Two elements in the current episode have been huge macro impediments for Emerging Market equities. First, the great bear market in China...

As we warned earlier this week,  never underestimate the Fed’s ability to out-dove the market. The FOMC delivered a 50-basis point cut to...

One of our favourite expressions in the last cycle was, never underestimate the Fed’s ability to out-dove the market . The implication is...

The Dollar Smile hypothesis was created over 20 years ago by Stephen Jen at Morgan Stanley. Simply put, when the US economy significantly...

Last week we suggested that US markets were priced for the optimal combination of disinflation, aggressive Fed easing, growth near trend,...

The past two months over the northern hemisphere summer have been extraordinary for markets. The euphoria of the AI boom contributed to...

It is an understatement to say that the price action over the past week has been impulsive, rapid, and emotional (chart 1). There is an...

To outperform the crowd, you must dare to be different. Put another way, the best investments are typically made from a position of deep...

It is an understatement to say that the past few weeks have been eventful for geopolitics and macro. Our fear at the end of June was that...

It is important to remember that currencies are always a relative price. Interest rates, growth, inflation, and external positions are...

As widely expected, the FOMC left the policy rate unchanged at the June meeting. Much of the market focus in the communication was on the...

Over the past few months there has been a growing prevailing bias that equities would enter a “crash up” or “melt-up” phase if weak macro...

In our 17 years in Asia, we have rarely met an investor from India who was bearish on their own market. To be fair, India has delivered...

Each year we release a set of “non-predictions.” As regular readers and clients know, we do not have typical forecast based approach....

The rally in Dr Copper, the industrial metal with an honorary PhD in Economics, has been a surprising development for most investors

Earlier this year China entered the zodiac year of the Dragon. It has been an auspicious year so far for equities with MSCI China up...

As we noted in April, the prevailing bias has been skewed to the belief that we are in a “crash up” phase in risk assets. Over the past...

“Selling empty promises from every point of view…. Just call on Mr. Dream” Billy Idol & Billy Morrison, May 2024 For those who have not...

Chart of the month – Nvidia’s Euphoric Rise vs China’s Brutal Selloff Nvidia (LHS) 1st Jan 2023 to Present CSI 1000 (RHS) 1st Jan 2023 to...