<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0"><channel><title><![CDATA[Vantage Point Asset Management]]></title><description><![CDATA[Formulate and implement bespoke, long-term, diversified investment strategies as well as hedging solutions based on your needs.]]></description><link>https://www.vpam.com/media-center</link><generator>RSS for Node</generator><lastBuildDate>Sat, 23 May 2026 00:48:08 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://www.vpam.com/vi/blog-feed.xml" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><item><title><![CDATA[History Rhymes]]></title><description><![CDATA[23 February 2026 As we often note, if you want to know where the future risk is, follow the leverage . Put differently, the common element in all major financial episodes is excessive leverage. In November last year, we noted the echoes with the 2008 crisis as well as the differences. These are included at the bottom of the note. Overnight, Blue Owl Capital – with $307 billion in assets under management – just permanently halted investor redemptions at its retail credit fund OBDC II. The fund...]]></description><link>https://www.vpam.com/post/history-rhymes</link><guid isPermaLink="false">699c1674f1d815afdb1f3fa3</guid><pubDate>Mon, 23 Feb 2026 09:12:20 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/9acfa3_5393647056424495b7b3fb23a263540c~mv2.jpeg/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>sebastienpautrot</dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[The "New Accord" Risk]]></title><description><![CDATA[02 February 2026 Earlier this week we warned that the price action in gold and precious metals had become “news” leading to a self-reinforcing feedback loop. We have been gold bulls in this cycle and expressed this via a sub-portfolio of gold miners. However, we cut this position in December, not because the miners had become expensive (they still trade on around 7 times cash flow) but because the recent price action had become rapid, emotional, and non-linear. That was a warning that the...]]></description><link>https://www.vpam.com/post/the-new-accord-risk</link><guid isPermaLink="false">698033171dce0ff3f10530a3</guid><pubDate>Mon, 02 Feb 2026 05:20:50 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/9acfa3_b07817b30eac48b4a7c53d1de8709b23~mv2.jpg/v1/fit/w_1000,h_559,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>sebastienpautrot</dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Commodities &#38; Diversification]]></title><description><![CDATA[26 January 2025 Markets are facing a pivotal moment. Optimism over the prospects for the United States in 2026 remain euphoric. As we noted last week, equity investor sentiment is near bullish extremes according to Bank of America’s survey and cash levels in mutual funds are near cycle lows (3.3%). However, near term growth momentum appears reliant on the fiscal impulse, wealth effects (asset prices) and business investment (AI). The pace of technology investment is already brisk and is...]]></description><link>https://www.vpam.com/post/commodities-diversification</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6976c423c28ec6f251929d32</guid><category><![CDATA[VPAM exclusive]]></category><pubDate>Mon, 26 Jan 2026 01:38:44 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/9acfa3_4397047705aa4f6a91f981f7e903412a~mv2.png/v1/fit/w_720,h_393,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>sebastienpautrot</dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Nothing Stops this Train]]></title><description><![CDATA[19 January 2025 It is only three weeks into the year, and it has already been an eventful one for the world and markets. Investor sentiment on equities has reached a near record bullish extreme according to Bank of America’s Bull &#38; Bear Indicator (9.3 out of 10). Cash allocations in mutual funds have also fallen to a record low of 3.3% (a sell-signal). By contrast, investor sentiment has turned bearish on US Treasuries (higher yields, lower bond prices) driven by shifting views about the path...]]></description><link>https://www.vpam.com/post/nothing-stops-this-train</link><guid isPermaLink="false">696d8108322ac077fef97a27</guid><category><![CDATA[VPAM exclusive]]></category><pubDate>Mon, 19 Jan 2026 01:01:23 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/9acfa3_d1363e0b685f4b0bac301433d4b52e8e~mv2.jpg/v1/fit/w_720,h_393,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>sebastienpautrot</dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Fiscal Dominance &#38; the Fed ]]></title><description><![CDATA[14 January 2025 We have had several questions in the last 48 hours on Department of Justice probe into Fed Chair Powell and the implication that might have for Fed Independence. From our humble perch, the Fed’s influence was already under threat indirectly due to fiscal dominance  – once debt is large enough and deficits stop being cyclical and become permanent, monetary policy becomes constrained. In that environment rates cease being a clean policy lever. Instead, they become subservient to...]]></description><link>https://www.vpam.com/post/fiscal-dominance-the-fed</link><guid isPermaLink="false">696712fb597111906e607b5c</guid><category><![CDATA[VPAM exclusive]]></category><pubDate>Wed, 14 Jan 2026 04:00:49 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/9acfa3_b07817b30eac48b4a7c53d1de8709b23~mv2.jpg/v1/fit/w_1000,h_559,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>sebastienpautrot</dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[A Pivotal Trend: Employment &#38; Productivity]]></title><description><![CDATA[12 January 2025 From a macro vantage point, the key big picture question is whether US employment will contract or re-accelerate for two reasons. First, labour market conditions are pivotal for the Fed’s reaction function. Second, economic growth is driven by trends in productivity and payrolls. The big picture challenge for growth is that employment trends are behaving like the economy is headed into recession. A few thoughts.   For several months, many economists have argued that the...]]></description><link>https://www.vpam.com/post/a-pivotal-trend-employment-productivity</link><guid isPermaLink="false">69645c9af5f67715567285c7</guid><pubDate>Mon, 12 Jan 2026 02:38:03 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/9acfa3_6e9423b747fb463eb98351506684a7e0~mv2.jpeg/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>sebastienpautrot</dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Short Fear In The New Year]]></title><description><![CDATA[06 January 2025 In our big picture outlook for 2026 we argued that there were three upside risks to growth. First, we are only halfway through the AI capex super cycle and associated productivity boom. Second, financial conditions were very accommodative. Third, the US fiscal impulse remained supportive, and the US administration was motivated to “run the economy hot” into the mid-terms. In Asia, we argued that the supply-chain leveraged to the AI boom remained inexpensive or...]]></description><link>https://www.vpam.com/post/short-fear-in-the-new-year</link><guid isPermaLink="false">695c411a3015b8c81104f2ba</guid><category><![CDATA[VPAM exclusive]]></category><pubDate>Mon, 05 Jan 2026 23:06:11 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/9acfa3_57fc8e915f1a4683b900452f475f81f1~mv2.jpeg/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>sebastienpautrot</dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Return of Not QE-QE]]></title><description><![CDATA[11 December 2025 As widely anticipated, the US Federal Reserve cut the funds rate by 25bp to 3.75% (upper band) at the December FOMC. That takes the policy rate closer to the upper end of neutral according to Chair Powell. A signal that “risk management” cuts are done. The Fed Chairman did not rule out more cuts if that was warranted by the data. However, he explicitly ruled out symmetrical (two-sided) risks to the policy path for now.   From our perch, the outlook for the labour market is...]]></description><link>https://www.vpam.com/post/the-return-of-not-qe-qe</link><guid isPermaLink="false">693a5f234b1ab0813fcb77c3</guid><category><![CDATA[VPAM exclusive]]></category><pubDate>Thu, 11 Dec 2025 06:10:53 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/9acfa3_a018476496a44397b351c038328062c4~mv2.jpg/v1/fit/w_1000,h_559,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>sebastienpautrot</dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[A Loose Anchor]]></title><description><![CDATA[10 December 2025 The prevailing bias is that the US Federal Reserve will cut the funds rate at the December FOMC on Wednesday. However, many investors anticipate “hawkish language.” From our vantage point, the description of a “hawkish cut” is self-contradictory. If the Fed cuts rates that will ease the cost of borrowing at the front end of the yield curve.  To be fair, the US is a “long rate” economy – most borrowing is done at the long end of the yield curve. Hence some investors fear that...]]></description><link>https://www.vpam.com/post/a-loose-anchor</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6938cdd1bc8bc9072b9d177a</guid><category><![CDATA[VPAM exclusive]]></category><pubDate>Wed, 10 Dec 2025 01:39:17 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/9acfa3_7ed6c77b998d4df7a3466432e428ad03~mv2.jpg/v1/fit/w_1000,h_559,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>sebastienpautrot</dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Rock and a Hard Place]]></title><description><![CDATA[21 November 2025 There has been a correction in risk assets over the past few weeks. While it has been orderly at the index level there has been a deeper correction in some of the popular exposures (data centre names) and in some of the listed private asset companies providing the finance. Investors were, quite rightly, focussed on NVDIA which reported after the market close on Wednesday in the United States. The bullish case, as we noted last week, is that we are only halfway through the AI...]]></description><link>https://www.vpam.com/post/rock-and-a-hard-place</link><guid isPermaLink="false">691fc62dca8861c3626da5ee</guid><category><![CDATA[VPAM exclusive]]></category><pubDate>Fri, 21 Nov 2025 02:05:14 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/9acfa3_01b8bcd3d37e430aa2b722a5742ccb8a~mv2.jpg/v1/fit/w_642,h_642,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>sebastienpautrot</dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Divergent]]></title><description><![CDATA[17 November 2025 We put a low weight on our ability to forecast. That is always challenging because human beings cannot see the future. Nonetheless, it is important to frame plausible realities to get a sense of the risk-reward. From our perch, the 2026 outlook is particularly inscrutable because there is a highly conflicting outlook on growth and inflation. Stated differently, we can make a convincing case for material upside and downside risks to the cyclical outlook. Each path could have...]]></description><link>https://www.vpam.com/post/divergent</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6919ec6676759c02a8648f9c</guid><category><![CDATA[VPAM exclusive]]></category><pubDate>Sun, 16 Nov 2025 15:31:05 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/9acfa3_b33681b2de284f12b158294833538e9d~mv2.jpeg/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>sebastienpautrot</dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[A Bigger Bubble?]]></title><description><![CDATA[03 November 2025 A key feature of our macro framework is that business cycles tend to be non-linear. This is antithetical to the efficient market hypothesis. The non-linearity exists because of a pro-cyclical or reflexive feedback loop. When a positive feedback loop develops between an underlying trend and a misconception relating to that trend, it sets a boom-bust process in motion. The boom-bust process is then amplified by credit and leverage. From our perch, most preconditions of a...]]></description><link>https://www.vpam.com/post/a-bigger-bubble</link><guid isPermaLink="false">6908173391f4e1bef6524b32</guid><category><![CDATA[VPAM exclusive]]></category><pubDate>Mon, 03 Nov 2025 02:50:08 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/9acfa3_714ad2444f764b60836e342139aeed05~mv2.jpeg/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>sebastienpautrot</dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[When Lightening Strikes]]></title><description><![CDATA[13 October 2025 If you want to know where the future risk is; follow the leverage.  As we often note, there is an intimate link between...]]></description><link>https://www.vpam.com/post/when-lightening-strikes</link><guid isPermaLink="false">68ec4da6fa847213f6c36497</guid><pubDate>Mon, 13 Oct 2025 00:57:03 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/9acfa3_5a887ff801784aea95e7aec1cf324b69~mv2.jpeg/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>sebastienpautrot</dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Always Think Symmetrically About Risk]]></title><description><![CDATA[25 September 2025 One of my mentors used to say always think symmetrically about risk . Put another way, it is important to consider...]]></description><link>https://www.vpam.com/post/always-think-symmetrically-about-risk</link><guid isPermaLink="false">68d4a32945cc4b94d67e8b70</guid><category><![CDATA[VPAM exclusive]]></category><pubDate>Thu, 25 Sep 2025 02:07:54 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/9acfa3_816fbe7a348940e4a47fba38897a3634~mv2.jpeg/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>sebastienpautrot</dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Pennies &#38; The Steamroller]]></title><description><![CDATA[18 September 2025 The paradox of the “Sharpe-Ratio” or value at risk approach to managing exposure is that long periods of stability...]]></description><link>https://www.vpam.com/post/pennies-the-steamroller</link><guid isPermaLink="false">68cbb41cdb7c421de5f18a25</guid><pubDate>Thu, 18 Sep 2025 07:35:13 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/9acfa3_fdc2afc11e0347269befdfa8225381eb~mv2.jpeg/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>sebastienpautrot</dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Non-Linear]]></title><description><![CDATA[17 September 2025 A key feature of our macro framework is that business cycles tend to be non-linear. The non-linearity exists because of...]]></description><link>https://www.vpam.com/post/non-linear</link><guid isPermaLink="false">68ca4b96eb24891320bbab52</guid><pubDate>Wed, 17 Sep 2025 05:51:30 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/9acfa3_5a887ff801784aea95e7aec1cf324b69~mv2.jpeg/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>sebastienpautrot</dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Hypothetical]]></title><description><![CDATA[12 September 2025 The current speculative episode in Artificial Intelligence (AI) has many parallels with the first dot.com  bubble in...]]></description><link>https://www.vpam.com/post/the-hypothetical</link><guid isPermaLink="false">68c216bf29ab8110bd65c25d</guid><pubDate>Thu, 11 Sep 2025 06:53:42 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/9acfa3_72654f7dc818483b89f31b95d2762654~mv2.jpg/v1/fit/w_515,h_694,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>sebastienpautrot</dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Gold &#38; Buzz Lightyear ]]></title><description><![CDATA[09 September 2025 As our friend Dave Dredge has argued for some time, the “good outcome”  for bond investors would be a recession (more...]]></description><link>https://www.vpam.com/post/gold-buzz-lightyear</link><guid isPermaLink="false">68bf7902bf36702c15b8bb13</guid><pubDate>Tue, 09 Sep 2025 01:18:22 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/9acfa3_10dd2f9a80634aedbbc251c5b6758474~mv2.jpeg/v1/fit/w_1000,h_1000,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>sebastienpautrot</dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Pet Rock]]></title><description><![CDATA[04 September 2025 Following a consolidation phase over the past few months that technicians would call a bull-flag, spot gold has broken...]]></description><link>https://www.vpam.com/post/pet-rock</link><guid isPermaLink="false">68b8dfffeb4118fd9cb4e278</guid><pubDate>Thu, 04 Sep 2025 00:52:58 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/9acfa3_72654f7dc818483b89f31b95d2762654~mv2.jpg/v1/fit/w_515,h_694,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>sebastienpautrot</dc:creator></item><item><title><![CDATA[Heroic Expectations]]></title><description><![CDATA[29 August 2025 Earlier this month following the Microsoft and Meta results we discussed AI and the spiraling cost model. The key...]]></description><link>https://www.vpam.com/post/heroic-expectations</link><guid isPermaLink="false">68b0dd6f035364d38b2c72a5</guid><category><![CDATA[VPAM exclusive]]></category><pubDate>Thu, 28 Aug 2025 22:59:42 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://static.wixstatic.com/media/9acfa3_72654f7dc818483b89f31b95d2762654~mv2.jpg/v1/fit/w_515,h_694,al_c,q_80/file.png" length="0" type="image/png"/><dc:creator>sebastienpautrot</dc:creator></item></channel></rss>