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The Ideas of March

There has been a growing perception that equities are now in a “melt up” or “crash up” phase. However, the big picture problem for optimists is that it is already priced into markets. From a fundamental standpoint, the S&P500 in year over year terms has already implied a recovery in the ISM to 60 (chart 1). Put another way, equities have already built in a soft/no landing scenario.

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