Media Center

Downfall Rising

A couple of weeks away from the screens is often a good time for perspective and reflection. Earlier this year the prevailing bias among...

Buzz Lightyear is Back

We once described Japan as the Buzz Lightyear market “to infinity and beyond”. Clearly that was an exaggeration to emphasize the impact...

The Hawk Baulk & Asia

As widely expected, the FOMC left the funds rate unchanged at 5.25% at the June meeting. However, consensus beliefs on the terminal rate...

A.I... All In like it's 1999

The divergence in consensus beliefs between the current leaders and laggards in the stock market is extraordinarily large. As several...

Nick Ferres on Bloomberg's "IC Your Trade 3"

"Yield curves have never been this inverted and not signalled a recession. Bank lending standards have never been this tight without...

The Antithesis of Euphoria

As we noted last week (see “how much can a panda bear”), the unwind of enthusiasm for China’s re-opening has been warranted. China’s hard...

Stealth Tightening

Not surprisingly, an agreement appears to have been reached to raise the debt ceiling. While negotiations were fraught, the debt ceiling...

Between Reality and Misconception

As a behavioural investor, the current episode has been fascinating and clearly challenging at the same time. The “everything bubble” as...

Our Quarterly Macro Outlook

Hard Not Soft

From our perch, the odds of a hard landing remain uncomfortably high. While risk assets have stabilised following the regional bank and...

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