Media Center

What if it works?

A key question our friend Dave Dredge at Convex Strategies often asks policy officials in Japan about extreme measures (ZIRP, QE, YCC...

Just Can't Get Enough

I Just can’t get enough I Just can’t get enough The markets slip and slide when we end the dove And I just can’t seem to get enough...

A Year of Contras

As we have noted recently 2023 has been the year of the contras where swings in major macro trends have caught consensus positioning and...

Blind Leading the Blind

In August we noted that a key characteristic of 2023 has been swings in the prevailing bias on major macro trends that have caught...

The Twisted Logic of Bad Equals Good

One of the key characteristics of 2023 has been swings in the prevailing bias on major macro trends that have caught consensus...

A Rolling Loan Gathers No Loss

Long end yields have recently broken to new cycle highs. From our perch, as we noted earlier this month, this likely reflects a few key...

The Great Fall of China

The Economist Cover on August 29th, 2015, was titled the “Great Fall of China.” While that was not quite the trough in that episode or...

If the First Wave Doesn't Get You the Second Wave Will

Earlier this week we suggested that the odds of a soft landing remain low. There have been only 2 out of 12 episodes since 1957. The most...

Eternal Hope or Revulsion?

From our perch, a behavioural error analysts and investors often make is to extrapolate cyclical dynamics as structural. The macro cycle...

The Bond Market Woke up and Chose Violence

“No Mr Bond… I expect you to die.” As an astute investor noted today, yield curves re-steepen (un-invert) as long bonds worry about...

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